Super Bowl LX Prediction & Best Bets

Quick post here as it’s been a long week at the Phoenix Open (and continuing this weekend)!

Here is my Super Bowl prediction + favorite prop bets!

I can’t believe I’m betting on Sam Darnold to win a Super Bowl. But he proved my NFC Championship prediction wrong with an awesome performance against the Rams. So much for the oblique injury after all. Without short fields this postseason, New England’s offense has done next to nothing and it will be the same story against an elite Seattle defense. The Patriots have been a great story this season but it won’t be a fun ending. Hopefully this isn’t the last time we see Drake Maye in a Super Bowl a la Dan Marino in his second year (also in a game played outside of San Francisco). Seattle rolls to their second Super Bowl championship.
Seahawks 27, Patriots 13

Favorite Bets:
Seahawks -4.5
Under 45.5

Drake Maye to throw an INT (-143)
In 16 games against quarterbacks not named Matthew Stafford, the Seahawks have recorded an interception in 12 of them. Maye has thrown exactly one interception in half his games this season. As I expect the Patriots to be in chase mode, I’m betting on at least one crucial turnover from the young New England QB.

Total Sacks: Over 4.5 (-150)
Drake Maye has taken exactly five sacks in all three postseason games. Sam Darnold has absorbed 14 sacks combined over his last five games. New England is averaging four sacks per game this postseason. Seattle averaged nearly three sacks per game in the regular season. In what I believe will be an ugly, defensive game, expect both quarterbacks to be tackled behind the line of scrimmage at least three times, which leads me to the over on this prop.

TreVeyon Henderson Over 27.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-109)
This one is interesting. Henderson’s rushing prop is over/under 18.5 yards, while his receiving prop is O/U 3.5 yards. So how is the combined number 3.5 yards higher? I’m not sure how the rookie’s snap count has gone from 26 to 25 to 4 in the playoffs but here we are. I expect him to play at least 20 snaps in the Super Bowl and receive a minimum of eight touches as we saw in 16 of 20 games to date. If I’m correct on the touches, Henderson needs to average 3.5 yards per touch to hit this prop. I’ll take that chance with such a dynamic player.

Cooper Kupp Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
I’m basing this pick on the volume uptick the veteran wide receiver has seen in the last couple games. Kupp has a 22% target share in the postseason, so let’s say Sam Darnold meets his attempts projection of 30, that’s 6-7 targets for Kupp. He already has topped this yardage line in both postseason games and has a tendency to be clutch in his career. Don’t forget his MVP performance in Super Bowl LVI. I’m not asking for the world here, just three catches for 35 yards would get it done for us. I’ll go somewhat bold and say that Kupp tops 40 yards based on the projected volume and as a security blanket for Sam Darnold.

Let’s hit it big…good luck!