College Football Playoff Score Predictions + Best bets

To be perfectly honest, this year’s College Football Playoff has far from the most appealing slate of games. The ACC’s failure to come up with a decent tiebreaker basically was the difference between James Madison making the CFP and Notre Dame. Heck, BYU with an 11-2 season and both losses to Texas Tech probably deserved a shot.

Of the four games this weekend, only two are compelling. Poor TNT paying ESPN rights fees only to air a rematch of a 45-10 blowout in September (Ole Miss-Tulane) and a team most casual fans have never seen play (James Madison).

While I have forever been against expansion beyond eight teams, I’m changing my tune here. I have two solutions as to what the decision-makers should do going forward. One is realistic and the other not so much.

1. 24 team playoff. Ten conference champions to be decided by the conference based on regular season record or a title game. And the other 14 teams are at-large. Conferences would have the option to eliminate championship games and instead make them play-in games.
   
2. 16 team playoff. The top-two teams from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC are all guaranteed spots as are the two highest ranked Group of 6 (including the rebuilt Pac-12) + Independent (i.e. Notre Dame) schools.

The 24 team format is what we’re seeing in FCS and for the final four, only the 2, 3, and 12 seeds are left as well as one team between 17-24. We can all complain that this isn’t the same college football we grew up with and that’s true. Between paying players and an expanded playoff, it’s certainly not. But might as well embrace it…

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On to the score predictions for each College Football Playoff Game and my first set of bowl game best bets below. Last year I started out 9-0 in my CFP game picks, so we’ll see if that continues in 2025-26.

First Round

#9 Alabama 21, #8 Oklahoma 13
The Sooners’ offense is hard to watch but they did win in Tuscaloosa a month ago. I’m concerned about the health of Alabama QB Ty Simpson but look for the Crimson Tide to play off the disrespect they’ve been given and pull out the road victory in an ugly game.

#10 Miami 31, #7 Texas A&M 28
I’m not overly convinced that the Aggies’ success this season wasn’t based on just a weak SEC schedule with no Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, etc… They got an incredible draw, albeit beating Notre Dame on the road in Week 3 was legit. Miami has a veteran QB in Carson Beck and I don’t think they’ll be scared of the environment.

#6 Ole Miss 34, #11 Tulane 21
We saw this game in September and it wasn’t fun, a 45-10 Rebels beatdown. But how will Ole Miss respond without Lane Kiffin? I don’t doubt that they’ll win but wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the game was close well into the second half.

#5 Oregon 41, #12 James Madison 17
JMU has been a nice story this season but this one is going to be ugly. I’m not sure how they keep this one inside 17 points, nor hold Oregon to under 31. The Ducks will score at will with JMU hitting the over for us with garbage-time points in the second half.

Quarterfinals

Cotton Bowl: #2 Ohio State 30, #10 Miami 14
No team has scored more than 16 points against the Buckeyes this season and like last season, they’ll take the pent up frustration of a loss in their last game out on their next opponent. The Buckeyes have good memories from beating Texas here in last year’s semifinals.

Orange Bowl: #4 Texas Tech 27, #5 Oregon 23
I’m almost certain that the Ducks will be favored here and that’s fine with me. Texas Tech’s defense will slow Oregon’s potent offense and the Red Raiders will advance to the Peach Bowl with their National Championship dreams still alive.

Rose Bowl: #9 Alabama 26, #1 Indiana 24
I’m calling for the big upset here. Who would’ve thought that Alabama could be this year’s CFP cinderella? Just like Oregon last year who was undefeated and the Big Ten champions, the Rose Bowl serves up another dose of humble pie, this time to Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and Indiana.

Sugar Bowl: #3 Georgia 31, #6 Ole Miss 23
This one was a 43-35 barn burner in October, and while I don’t expect nearly as much scoring this time around, I believe the better team will prove victorious yet again. I wish the CFP committee had switched Ole Miss and Texas A&M to avoid two likely rematches from the regular season.

Semifinals

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Ohio State 21, #3 Georgia 16
The winner of this game will win the National Championship. Both teams lead with strong defenses but the Buckeyes’ weapons on offense will end up being just enough to lead them to a second consecutive National Championship Game.

Peach Bowl: #4 Texas Tech 30, #9 Alabama 19
The cinderella story of Alabama (I say that kiddingly) ends with a two score defeat at the hands of Texas Tech. And a bonus prediction is that Alabama fans will once again be furious at coach Kalen DeBoer, even if he wins two impressive playoff games. No, he’s not Nick Saban and never will be. Deal with it.

National Championship Game

#2 Ohio State 28, #4 Texas Tech 16
The Buckeyes were the best team all season until a curiously conservative gameplan in the Big Ten Championship Game. It would be an incredible accomplishment for Texas Tech to make it here, but they are outclassed almost across the board by the Buckeyes. Ryan Day will win his second straight national title and become only the second OSU coach to win multiple championships (Woody Hayes, 5). Game MVP: Jeremiah Smith, who scores twice and catches 120+ yards in passes proving he’s the best collegiate receiver in recent memory.

Early Bowl Season Best Bets
(All best bets are one unit unless specified. Lines are from DraftKings)
-Alabama -1.5 at Oklahoma (-105)
-Miami +3.5 at Texas A&M (-118)
-Tulane +17.5 at Ole Miss (-112)
-James Madison / Oregon Over 48.5 (-115) – 1.5 units
-Utah State -2.5 vs. Washington State (-108)
-Western Kentucky -4.5 vs. Southern Miss (-112)
-Minnesota -2.5 vs. New Mexico (-105) – 1.5 units
(P.J. Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games at Minnesota)
-San Diego State ML vs. North Texas (+136)
-Houston -3 vs. LSU (-108)

NFL Week 16 Score Predictions to come later this week.

Good luck betting the bowls!