Week 14 CFB Musings

It’s the best weekend of the college football season and also the saddest – the final regular season games of the 2025 season.

The last two years on SportsLine, I crushed my CFB picks…but it’s definitely been the opposite in 2025, especially over the last two weeks. But it’s time to end the regular season with a bang!

What makes Thanksgiving great in my opinion are three things: family, food, and football. So here’s an extra helping of CFB thoughts, picks, and score predictions this week. All lines from DraftKings.

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Last Week: 2-5 (-4.31)
2025 Season: 31-41 (-14.08u)

Utah needs style points in what possibly is their last chance to impress the College Football Playoff committee. Kansas needs to defend their home turf as a two-touchdown underdog to qualify for a bowl game. Utes win 38-24 but this one is a no play for me.

I thought Iowa would pummel Michigan State in Week 13 but instead barely walked away with a win in their home finale. Nebraska got smoked by Penn State when I thought they might show something with a true freshman QB. The Hawkeyes have won each of the last years by the same score, 13-10. I lean towards the under but will pass on betting it much. Iowa wins 20-13.

A lot on the line in the Egg Bowl, especially since I believe that Lane Kiffin will announce he’s out at Ole Miss before the CFP and on his way to LSU. I’m taking the points with Mississippi State, as I think this one could potentially cost the Rebels their playoff chances with a loss. But they’ll find a way late, Ole Miss wins 34-31.

I don’t know what’s happened to Georgia Tech lately but it’s not good. Last year’s version of “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate” went eight overtimes and was won by the Bulldogs, 44-42. I’m taking the points with the Yellow Jackets at home once again. Georgia 30, Georgia Tech 24.

New Mexico has been awesome lately, having won five straight games and is undefeated at home this season. I think they upset San Diego State as a 1.5-point underdog. I have no idea how the scenarios for the Mountain West Championship Game would look, but I like UNM’s chances if they win this game. New Mexico 23-20.

Utah State is 9-2 against the spread this season and 5-0 ATS at home. Don’t be surprised if they upset Boise State on Friday. Utah State 31-28.

Texas A&M has been awesome this season and is a CFP lock even at 11-1. Texas needs a convincing win against their undefeated rivals and a lot of help to get in the Playoff. As small home underdogs, give me the Longhorns straight up, 27-24.

Stay away from Indiana -28.5 on the road at Purdue. Sure, the Hoosiers might crush their in-state rivals, but they would be better off getting a big lead and resting their starters in advance of next week’s Big Ten Championship Game.

Here’s the game that I really, really, really care about. My Arizona Wildcats have won four straight games and have overachieved this season with an impressive 8-3 record. Arizona State is also 8-3 but missing their starting QB, Sam Leavitt due to a season-ending injury suffered a few weeks ago. The Wildcats hammered the Sun Devils in Tempe in 2023 and were pasted at home in Tucson last season. This is the first time that both teams have been good in this rivalry at the same time since 2014. Expect a close game throughout but I’m a homer and I love the way Brent Brennan’s team is playing. I’m taking my alma mater to pull out the road win: Arizona 27-23.

It’s the greatest rivalry in all of sports in my eyes: Michigan vs. Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been untested since the season-opener vs. Texas and look to avenge a four-game losing streak to the hated Wolverines. Ryan Day HAS to win this game. There are no excuses anymore. While Michigan will be the first team to score more than 16 points on the Buckeyes this season, it won’t be enough. Ohio State remains undefeated and a lock for a first round bye in the CFP. Buckeyes 28-20.

Clemson has won 8 of the last 10 Palmetto Bowl matchups but has fallen to their rivals in 2 of the last 3 years, both at home. South Carolina hasn’t won this rivalry game at home since 2013. I’m fading the Gamecocks once again. Clemson ends a very disappointing regular season with a road upset. Tigers 31-24.

Miami at Pittsburgh is a game I’m going to try and avoid spread-wise. How will the Hurricanes handle freezing temperatures and a sizzling offense which has only struggled recently against a tough Notre Dame team? They need to impress the playoff committee as much as possible because it’s doubtful Mario Cristobal’s team makes it into the ACC Championship Game. Doesn’t the total of 50.5 feel low though? There have been 52+ points scored in all but one Pitt game all season. I’m on the over once again: Miami 34, Pittsburgh 28.

Houston is 5-0 on the road this season, albeit their only tough game was a win at Arizona State. Baylor has totally come apart towards the end of the season. I’m tempted to play Cougars money line at plus-money.

BYU isn’t losing to UCF but laying 17.5-points is something I won’t do. Style points don’t matter for the Cougars, beating Texas Tech next week in the Big 12 Championship Game is the priority.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Oklahoma beat LSU something like 13-3. The under 37.5 is tempting as both teams’ defenses are excellent. All the Sooners need to do is win and they’re in the CFP. And that’s what they’ll do…but it won’t be fun to watch.

Tennessee has beaten Vanderbilt six straight times and none have been by single digits. The home field advantage for the Volunteers and the motivation of ruining their in-state rivals’ chances at making the Playoff are enough to lay 2.5-points at home. Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 24.

Minnesota is 6-0 at home and 0-5 on the road. The battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe is at home. Minnesota wins ugly and covers the small spread: 16-10 over Wisconsin.

Will Saturday be Jedd Fisch’s last game at Washington as he searches for another destination (a la UCLA or his alma mater Florida)? Five of the last six matchups in this rivalry have seen 65 or more points scored. Expect another fun shootout with the Ducks prevailing for the second straight season. Oregon 35, Washington 30.

Why did Mike Norvell keep his job at Florida State? There has been no team in the country more disappointing over the last two seasons. Though they need to win to make a bowl game, I can’t confidently bet FSU as they are 0-4 on the road this season. While the Gators are going nowhere, I think they defend their home turf. Florida 24, Florida State 20.

James Franklin and his Virginia Tech team will win this matchup next year once he takes over, but on the road, the Hokies have no chance of keeping the Cavaliers out of the ACC Championship Game.

There’s nothing more that Auburn fans want than to keep Alabama out of the CFP and win at home would do that. But the Tigers aren’t good enough. The Crimson Tide will cover less than a touchdown spread and move on to the final 12. Alabama 30, Auburn 17

During their current four game losing streak, UCLA has given up an average of 45 points per game. I love playing USC overs at home and this is no exception. The Trojans will take out their frustration with a 50+ point game on Saturday night. USC 52, UCLA 24.

SMU is going to end up in the Playoff again, aren’t they? All they have to do is win at Cal, who fired coach Justin Wilcox on Sunday, followed by beating Virginia in the ACC Championship Game next week. I would lean towards laying the 12.5 against a punchless Golden Bears squad. SMU 31, Cal 13.

And finally, Notre Dame wants more style points to impress the CFP committee considering they have no conference title game to play in next week. It’s hard to imagine them scoring less than 40 against Stanford this week though I can’t lay 32.5 points with any road team.

14 Official Plays for Week 14
-Mississippi State +7.5 vs. Ole Miss (-125)
-Georgia Tech +14.5 vs. Georgia (-136)
-Iowa / Nebraska Under 39.5 (-108)
-New Mexico ML vs. San Diego State (+105)
-Utah State ML vs. Boise State (+124)
-Texas ML vs. Texas A&M (+110)
-Clemson ML at South Carolina (+110)
-Miami / Pittsburgh Over 50.5 (-115)
-Oregon / Washington Over 53.5 (-115)
-LSU / Oklahoma Under 37.5 (-112)
-Tennessee -3 vs. Vanderbilt (-105)
-Minnesota -1.5 vs. Wisconsin (-108)
-Alabama -5.5 at Auburn (-112)
-UCLA / USC Over 58.5 (-133)

Good luck this weekend, Happy Thanksgiving, and as I always like to say, “Let’s hit it big! Good luck!”