Week 12 CFB Musings

The next few weeks of college football are going to be crazy. While Ohio State looks like the team to beat, it’s also fair to say that they haven’t really been tested after beating Texas in Week 0. I don’t think Indiana has any chance against them in the Big Ten Championship Game in three weeks but can an SEC team or Notre Dame knock them off in the College Football Playoff? I’d still be surprised. In the meantime, the Buckeyes failed to cover a spread for the first time all year last week at Purdue. Can UCLA cover 31.5-points against them on Saturday night? I’d lean towards the over 47.5 as I could see OSU scoring 40+ on the weak Bruins defense.

All plays will be one unit on this blog unless specified. All lines from Draft Kings.

Here are some thoughts on this week’s games and with that, official plays will be in bold.

Last Week: 2-4
Overall: 26-30 (-6.77u)

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I’m not sure how Louisville lost to Cal last week – I mentioned in this column that I liked the Bears but didn’t make it an official play. Whoops! I’ll go with the reverse angle this week and pick against my preseason national champions, Clemson. While I won’t make it one of my top plays, Louisville -3 will be included as part of my Friday night parlay card. The Cardinals still have a slim chance at the CFP but need some help.

The under in Friday night’s other notable game seems ridiculously low. Oregon will once again get the train rolling and score 30+ on Minnesota. All we need is for the Golden Gophers to put up a touchdown and a field goal. Style points matter some for the Ducks as they want to ensure a home playoff game in the quarterfinals. Oregon 37, Minnesota 13.
Minnesota / Oregon Over 43.5 (-118)

Pittsburgh is 7-2, winners of five straight games and their only two losses this season are my seven points each. As good as Notre Dame is, I don’t think style points matter for them anymore. If they beat the Panthers, Syracuse, and at Stanford, they’re a CFP lock. If Pitt wins out, they also have a chance to get in, but would likely have to win the ACC Championship Game to do so. Should be a fun game on Saturday but I have a hard time seeing this one decided by more than one score. Notre Dame 34, Pittsburgh 27.
Pittsburgh +12.5 (-108)

It’s safe to say that South Carolina has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country. At 3-6, with a QB that many thought was a true Heisman contender in LaNorris Sellers, Shane Beamer’s team has been underwhelming from day 1. I would recommend that Beamer be actively looking to take the Virginia Tech job if he can still get it. In the meantime, the Aggies are undefeated and have been awesome this year, but this game has some trap elements to it with the big rivalry game vs. Texas ahead in two weeks. They’ll still win, but this feels like a touchdown too heavy to me. Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 20.
South Carolina +19.5 (-112)

One of my weekly rules throughout the 2025 season has been to fade Oklahoma State as much as possible. At 4-5, Kansas State has shown flashes of greatness and awfulness throughout what has been an incredibly disappointing season. But against a 1-8 team that hasn’t beaten an FBS team, and is only 2-7 against the spread, I’m backing the Wildcats to even their record in style. Kansas State 37, Oklahoma State 10.
Kansas State -18.5 (-112)

I’m proud of my Arizona Wildcats for making bowl eligibility despite a subpar performance last week at home against Kansas. However, in looking ahead at their schedule in August, I said this week’s contest was the one they had ZERO chance to win. Coming off a bye week, the ranked Bearcats may not blow out my Wildcats but they should be able to at least cover the six point spread. I can’t make it an official play to bet against my own team, but do as you please. Cincinnati 31, Arizona 21.

Arkansas has only played two games to the under this season and the total points in those contests were 59 and 65. But LSU might have the best defense they have to seen to date. I am tempted to play the under 57.5 but will stay away because of the Razorbacks’ defense’s propensity to surrender points in bunches.

Oregon State at Tulsa is one of the most disgusting matchups we’ll see all season. Both teams are 2-7 with exactly one win over an FBS team. Somehow OSU just lost at home to a winless Sam Houston State team. Tulsa +2.5 and ML seems like an interesting lean against the sad Beavers.

One of my favorite CFB coaches of all-time is Rich Rodriguez. I thought he did a fine job at UofA, though his recruiting was far from perfect. In what should be a wet game in Tempe, I’m taking the Mountaineers to keep it within 11.5 points. ASU is without their top two players in the QB-WR combo of Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. I wouldn’t mind sprinkling the money line either for a WV team looking for their third straight victory. ASU 24, West Virginia 20.
West Virginia +10.5 (-105)

A couple of ranked vs. ranked matchups at 3:30 pm ET that will only be leans for me. Can Oklahoma generate enough offense to upset Alabama? I say no in what should be a low-scoring contest. Alabama 23-17. Normally I love to play overs in USC home games, and I lean to the Over 48.5 vs. Iowa. But there is a 100% chance of rain in LA and the field could be messy. So tread carefully on that pick. Assuming the rain isn’t too crazy, give me USC 31-23.

I’m going to add a couple of ACC teams to my official plays for the week. Miami may have renewed life in the CFP race but asking them to cover 15.5 points against NC State might be too much. High-scoring game in South Florida, but I’ll take the Wolfpack to keep it interesting. Miami 34, NC State 28.
NC State +15.5 (-108)

I’m all out on Virginia, who seemingly had nine lives in surviving close game after close game this season. I don’t think their QB Chandler Morris will play at Duke due to a concussion, and I’m not sure the Cavaliers’ defense can slow the potent Duke offense. Manny Diaz may have his eyes on the Penn State job but he needs to keep winning in Durham first. Duke 35, Virginia 20.
Duke -4 (-112)

Keep an eye on Baylor +8.5 at home against Utah. I’ll see the Bears in person in Tucson next week and it’s clear they won’t be looking ahead to that game. While I don’t think Utah loses, I could see this one being decided by six points or less. Both offenses should produce nicely so a lean towards the over 59.5 is recommended as well as the Bears. Utah 34, Baylor 30.

Time for my upset special of the week. Texas has won four straight games since the misstep in Gainesville, although they allowed Vandy to make it all too interesting late two weeks ago. Georgia has won five straight games, including a 20-point beatdown of Mississippi State on the road last weekend. But the Longhorns owe the Bulldogs some revenge for a 22-19 overtime loss in the SEC Championship Game last season. Not only am I taking the +6.5 for a full unit, I’ll sprinkle the upset for half a unit. The Longhorns keep their CFP dreams alive for now. Texas 24, Georgia 23.
Texas +6.5 (-110)
Texas ML (+200) – 1/2 unit

Two very interesting late-night games to wrap up the Week 12 college football slate with all four teams coming off losses. Without QB Maddux Madsen, it’s time to fade Boise State and lay San Diego State -3 points at home. But the Aztecs were blitzed by Hawaii inexplicably and are now out of consideration for the College Football Playoff. I lean SDSU to cover against Boise’s backup QB Max Cutforth.

Not sure what to make of BYU only giving TCU 3.5-points at home. Shouldn’t that line be closer to a touchdown? After all, TCU just lost at home to Iowa State (which I said wasn’t possible…whoops). The Cougars are definitely on upset alert. I’ll be staying away from this game unless a live betting opportunity arises.

Official plays for Week 12:
Minnesota / Oregon Over 43.5 (-118)
Pittsburgh +12.5 (-108)
South Carolina +19.5 (-112)
Kansas State -18.5 (-112)
West Virginia +10.5 (-105)
NC State +15.5 (-108)
Duke -4 (-112)
Texas +6.5 (-110) & Texas ML (+200) – 1/2 unit

If you missed by NFL Score Predictions from Tuesday, check them out here.

Good luck this weekend and as I always like to say, let’s hit it big!