Week 11 NFL Score Predictions

For long time readers of this blog, I’m talking eight years ago and beyond, I’ve written about my fantasy football ineptitude before. Don’t get me wrong: I’m running in excess of 12 teams this season and most, at least nine, are going to make the playoffs in 2025. Among them is my team in my own league, the ECFFL, where I’m in first place with a 17-3 record (9-1 head-to-head, 8-2 vs. the league median). Problem is, this is Year 29 and I’ve still never won it. I’ve finished runner-up seven times and one year lost by 0.36 in a total points league. I wrote about that failure here many years ago…still fun to laugh at if it wasn’t so sad!

Unfortunately, while my team is pretty darn good, it’s not championship caliber despite having taken Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua with my top two picks. Between that and my unlucky dating life (those stories are good but probably not for this blog), I need to catch a break sooner or later!

Fortunately, my weekly straight up NFL picks continue to succeed so at least there’s some saving grace.

On to the Week 11 NFL score predictions…

Last week: 10-4
2025-26 Season: 98-50-1 (66%)
2024-25 Regular Season: 180-92 (66%)
2024-25 Overall: 190-95 (69%)

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At the beginning of the season, I thought New England was maybe a year or so away from making a playoff run. Now I’d be borderline shocked if they didn’t win the AFC East and potentially capture the AFC’s No. 1 seed. It seems as if they’ll be favored in six of their last seven games and a 14-3 record certainly isn’t out of the question. At this point, Mike Vrabel would have my vote over Shane Steichen as Coach of the Year (both +145 odds now). As for the Jets, I’m glad they’ve somehow won two straight games but they’re a dumpster fire until proven otherwise.
Patriots 23, Jets 13

I’m sure the Madrid fans will enjoy watching the NFL live in their home country for the first time ever during the regular season. But this game pales in comparison to what we thought it could be before the season. Washington is among the worst teams in the NFC and their season is all but over. Miami surprisingly beat Buffalo last week and while they’re going nowhere, I admire the fact that the team is still playing hard for Mike McDaniel.
Dolphins 28, Commanders 21

Atlanta was coming off a big road win at Minnesota in Week 2 and somehow got spanked 30-0 at winless Carolina. You have to think there’s a revenge angle in play for the Falcons. I don’t know why they aren’t giving star running back Bijan Robinson as many touches lately, but for a team in desperate need of stringing wins together, I’d very much recommend. The home team exacts a measure of revenge with a win this weekend.
Falcons 27, Panthers 21

Buffalo getting thoroughly dominated by Miami in Week 10 was not something I had on my 2025 NFL season bingo card. But this week the Bills are back home and facing a banged up Buccaneers team. I expect Josh Allen and his offense to feast and restore confidence that this team can make a deep run in the postseason. It’s crazy how wide open the AFC is, isn’t it? Tampa Bay is almost a shoe-in for the NFC South title so another loss won’t hurt them all that much.
Bills 30, Buccaneers 20

I don’t know if calling a three point home underdog as an upset pick, but either way, this is a must win for the 5-4 Jaguars. A loss here and their chances at making the playoff decreases significantly. At 6-4 and winners of three straight games in dominant fashion, I suspect that the Chargers will be a popular choice this week. Look for Jacksonville to bounce back after an all-timer of a fourth quarter collapse in Week 10 and keep their season alive heading into a softer part of their schedule coming up.
Jaguars 27, Chargers 23

I really wanted to pick Chicago here to avenge the Week 1 home loss. But the Bears haven’t played crisply of late and are lucky to have beaten the Bengals and Giants in each of the last two weeks. At 4-5 and with road games at Green Bay and Seattle next up, this is a MUST win for Minnesota. I think they win on a last second Will Reichard field goal.
Vikings 26, Bears 24

The fact that Green Bay’s three losses have all come in games where they’ve surrendered under 20 points is downright embarrassing. But the rumors of coach Matt LaFleur’s job security are absolutely silly. He’s made the playoffs in 5 of the last 6 years and is dealing with a host of injuries now especially on offense. While his play calling hasn’t been great lately, firing him would be beyond foolish. The Giants finally pulled the plug on the Brian Daboll era this week and it makes me consider if they’ll play harder for interim coach Mike Kafka. Nonetheless, I think Green Bay gets back on track against a New York team that I don’t expect to have rookie QB phenom Jaxson Dart (concussion).
Packers 23, Giants 16

Pittsburgh’s large lead in the AFC North is down to one game over Baltimore and it’s only a matter of time until they are surpassed. How offensive coordinator Arthur Smith continues to get plum jobs in this league despite his consistently stale play calling is beyond me. But the Bengals’ defense is a mess and even the Joe Flacco magic won’t be able to save Cincinnati on the road. The Steelers remain in the playoff field for at least another week.
Steelers 27, Bengals 23

At 4-5 with wins in four of their last six games, Houston is still alive in the AFC’s playoff picture. The stunning fourth quarter rally against Jacksonville was right up there among the most improbable victories in recent memory, especially since the Texans were playing with a backup quarterback. I expect C.J. Stroud back this week and he’ll feast on a sad Titans defense. It seems more than likely that Tennessee will be picking first overall yet again in 2026.
Texans 26, Titans 18

I wonder if Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon is a goner or whether he’ll stay and be on a very hot seat heading into 2026. At 3-6, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals winning more than four of their final seven games. Jacoby Brissett has clearly outplayed Kyler Murray, but does it even matter at this point since neither are the future for Arizona? San Francisco has an easy schedule down the stretch but I expect them to be one-and-done in the playoffs, as the defense is a shell of itself without a few major contributors. The fans at State Farm Stadium will see a fun one on Sunday, with a late Christian McCaffrey TD being the difference for the 49ers.
49ers 31, Cardinals 26

This is arguably the game of the week in the NFL between two top NFC contenders. Seattle has won four straight games by margins of 8, 8, 24, and 22. Los Angeles has won their last four contests by 14, 28, 24, and 16 points. In the first of potentially three matchups between these two teams, I have to roll with the home team. If the defenses are relatively equal, I trust Matthew Stafford a lot more than Sam Darnold, as I saw firsthand at the Rams-Vikings playoff matchup in Arizona last January.
Rams 27, Seahawks 24

Baltimore is flying high now that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens defense is healthier again. Cleveland is a dumpster fire and should be trying something else other than the Dillon Gabriel experiment at quarterback. Gabriel might end up being a long term NFL backup but he’s sure not starter quality. The Ravens win their fourth straight contest to even their record at 5-5.
Ravens 28, Browns 13

Denver has won seven straight games and sits at 8-2 near the top of the AFC, but let’s be honest, who have they actually beaten in the process? Outside of road wins in Philadelphia and Houston, the Broncos schedule has been downright bad. Facing a rested Chiefs team entering off a bye, this is not a good spot for Denver despite being at home. I think the game is close though and eventually decided on a missed two-point conversion to tie it up. Hate to say it, but Kansas City still might be the team to beat in their conference even if they don’t win the AFC West.
Chiefs 24, Broncos 22

What a stinker we saw on Monday night between the Eagles and Packers! But good teams find a way to win off games and Philadelphia did in Week 10. While the Lions offense is explosive, I trust the Eagles defense to slow them down more so than the other way around. I’d like to see something from the Jalen Hurts-to-A.J. Brown connection in order to feel more comfortable picking Philadelphia come the postseason. While they haven’t had a Super Bowl hangover of sorts this season, the offense hasn’t been nearly as sharp as expected. I think we’ll see flashes of greatness in a fun game on Sunday night.
Eagles 29, Lions 24

Assuming the Disney-YouTubeTV fiasco hasn’t been resolved by next Monday night, I won’t be upset for missing this one. Sure, we should probably see a few points with a couple of bad defenses playing, but these teams won’t sniff the playoffs so it might as well be a glorified exhibition game. Dallas should bounce back and put on an offensive display after the Week 9 MNF dud vs. Arizona. Plus they’ll be playing for their fallen teammate. I’ll be laying the 3.5-points for the road favorite in this one.
Cowboys 30, Raiders 23

Back later this week with Week 12 CFB thoughts.