I apologize in advance for the brief NFL picks column this week. I’m a little under the weather and doing my best to lay low before a big weekend of college and pro games. So less writeups than usual for each pick this week.
I need 30 more wins in the season’s last 48 games to match my win total from 2024. On to the Week 16 score predictions:
Last week: 10-6
2025-26 Regular Season: 150-73-1 (67%)
2024-25 Regular Season: 180-92 (66%)
2024-25 Overall: 190-95 (69%)
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Sam Darnold is 0-3 vs. Rams, with his teams (Minnesota x2, Seattle) only averaging 16 PPG since 2024. The Rams have won 4 of last 5 in this series, with 6 of last 7 decided by one possession.
Rams 23, Seahawks 20
When the NFL schedule was announced last May, this game looked to be a fun Saturday standalone game. Spoiler alert: it isn’t anymore considering how awful the Commanders have been.
Eagles 30, Commanders 16
For all intents and purposes, the Packers are done without Micah Parsons. And yes, they’re my favorite team. But I doubt that their defense can hold up against the NFC’s best without their dominant player. Chicago once again moves to the top in the NFC North.
Bears 24, Packers 19
Tampa Bay is 0-6 against the spread in their last six games and 1-7 ATS in last eight contests. Carolina has alternated wins and losses in their last eight games. I’m buying into the Bucs’ free fall.
Panthers 24, Buccaneers 23
Buffalo still has an outside shot at the AFC East title. Cleveland still has an outside shot at the #1 overall pick. Not a hard choice.
Bills 27, Browns 13
Los Angeles’ schedule is so tough down the stretch but the win at Kansas City last week all but ensured them a playoff spot. It’s truly amazing with all of Dallas’ resources how disappointing they are year-in, year-out.
Chargers 30, Cowboys 25
This game is so bad between two awful teams that I’m calling for a Scorigami on Sunday.
Saints 22, Jets 11
If the Giants lose out, they should get the #1 overall pick. They have some interesting pieces in place for long term success, so trading down and grabbing more high picks could be worth it if that scenario plays out.
Vikings 23, Giants 22
I really wanted to pick Tennessee here but the Titans don’t want to screw up another high draft pick of their own. Gardner Minshew leads Kansas City to an ugly win in the post-Mahomes 2025 campaign.
Chiefs 20, Titans 16
Miami’s decision to play Quinn Ewers in place of the high-priced Tua Tagovailoa is shocking, but not foolish. Tua’s career has been derailed by concussions and Ewers is a former 5* college prospect. Won’t matter as the Bengals get back on track in a lost season.
Bengals 29, Dolphins 23
How and why does coach Jonathan Gannon still have a job for my hometown Cardinals? Do he and GM Monti Ossenfort really deserve to choose their own franchise QB in place of Kyler Murray?
Falcons 28, Cardinals 24
Denver just keeps finding a way. This seems like a team who will get the AFC bye and lose at home in the Divisional Round. PS – these NFL playoffs are going to be WILD with upsets.
Broncos 27, Jaguars 23
Betting Dan Campbell’s Lions teams against the spread off a loss has been a very profitable angle. The next two games mean nothing for Pittsburgh, who only needs to beat Baltimore again in Week 18 to win the AFC North.
Lions 31, Steelers 20
Are the Texans, with their awesome defense, a sneaky AFC title contender? You bet. There’s a reason the have slightly better odds than New England to win the conference.
Texans 29, Raiders 6
Tough one to predict here, but Baltimore needs a win to remain in play for a long shot division title. I’m not sure there’s more of a bi-polar team to predict in the NFL. Where did last week’s shutout in Cincinnati come from?
Ravens 24, Patriots 23
And finally, Philip Rivers wasn’t half bad against a tough Seattle defense in his first NFL game in five years last week. Fun story but Indy is toast and San Francisco just keeps finding ways to win.
49ers 27, Colts 22
If you missed my College Football Playoff picks / bowl game best bets column from earlier in the week, find it here.
Cohen's Corner 