I’m still glowing after a 9-3 season for my Arizona Wildcats, the second such successful campaign since 2023. While the team may not be the most talented in school history, they seem to actually like each other and upped their play with a 5-0 November and now the #18 ranking by the College Football Playoff Committee.
Speaking of the CFP, here is what I believe to be true heading into championship weekend:
-Notre Dame is better today than Miami, but if they end up ranked close to each other, the Hurricanes have to jump the Fighting Irish based on their Week 1 result. While there’s not a fair solution to this one for both sides, it just is what it is.
-The days of marquee non-conference games will be diminished as there’s no incentive to risk another loss. And imagine if Notre Dame does get in over Miami, there’s even less reason to play huge out-of-conference games. This trickle-down effect will water down the sport sadly. Marquee early season matchups are a must.
-Conference tiebreakers are a joke. New Mexico went 6-0 in conference play to finish out the season and still lost some bizarre tiebreaker to both Boise State and UNLV. Completely nonsensical, especially since the Lobos beat the Rebels on November 1st. And don’t even get me started with the ACC. In a way, they deserve to have no teams in the CFP if 7-5 Duke beats 10-2 Virginia. Their convoluted tiebreaker somehow made less sense than the Mountain West!
As not to spoil my results below, here is how I believe the top-12 will look come Sunday:
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Alabama
- Miami
- Virginia
- Tulane
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On to the score predictions for each conference title game and my best bets below.
Last Week: 7-7 (-0.52)
Overall: 38-48 (-14.60u)
I’ll be honest that I haven’t watched much of either team this season so it’s hard to break this one down. Kennesaw State has been awesome this season outside of a nine point loss to Jacksonville State on the road in November. Speaking of home field advantage, Jacksonville State is undefeated at home this season and is 5-1 against the spread in those games. Just a hunch here that the roles are reversed on Friday night. The Owls went 2-10 last year in their first FBS season and have turned it around so impressively in 2025. They’ll win the Conference USA title in 2025.
Kennesaw State 35, Jacksonville State 27
Style points matter for James Madison in the Sun Belt Championship Game if they want any chance to jump the American Conference winner for the #12 seed in the Playoff. There’s also some hope that if Duke wins the ACC, both JMU and the American winner are in. Far from a long shot scenario honestly. Troy lost 33-0 at Old Dominion in November. This is going to be an absolute romp for the Dukes and departing head coach Bob Chesney (UCLA).
James Madison 42, Troy 14
This is the one game I really don’t have a great read on. North Texas has topped 50 points in 5 of their last 6 games, which is ridiculous. But there’s not really a team that they’ve beaten which overly impresses me. Tulane has been solid again this year with former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff, but they’ll need their defense to lead the way on Friday night. This game isn’t going to be low-scoring by any means, but Tulane can’t afford North Texas getting into the high-30s. Look for a see-saw affair where I lean towards the home team plus the points and outright.
Tulane 31, North Texas 28
It looks like snow is in the forecast for Boise on Friday night (shocker!) so I lean towards the under between two potent offenses. Broncos QB Maddux Madsen returns from injury, which gives the home team a slight advantage in my mind. Boise State crushed the Rebels 56-31 at home in October but look for this game to be a lot closer. I’m going to play the under because of the projected weather forecast and call for another Mountain West championship for the Broncos.
Boise State 24, UNLV 21
I wouldn’t be overly surprised if BYU won the Big 12 Championship Game outright. When Kelani Sitake turned down Penn State to stay at his alma mater, I have to think that gave a shot in the arm to his team. Texas Tech won this game 29-7 in early-November at home, but this one is going to be a lot closer. The Red Raiders will hold on to a first round bye with a win, but as we saw with Ohio State last year, a home first round playoff game isn’t the worst thing in the world. Plus, the conference would benefit greatly if two teams got in. I love the Cougars plus the points this weekend with a slight sprinkle on the money line.
Texas Tech 27, BYU 20
Miami won a late-October matchup by nine points at home, but that was the only blemish for a Western Michigan team in the MAC regular season. I’ll play the revenge angle, including a team that won four straight to end the season, including two on the road.
Western Michigan 27, Miami OH 23
Alabama has won 10 of the last 11 meetings, with the exception of the National Championship Game in 2021, a 33-18 Bulldogs victory. Kirby Smart is 1-7 vs. the Crimson Tide but his fortune changes in Atlanta on Saturday. The Bulldogs are playing like true title contenders, while the Crimson Tide’s play is not where it was during the middle of the season. The Dawgs hold serve in Atlanta and gain the #2 seed in the CFP with their third SEC Championship in the last four years.
Georgia 24, Alabama 17
This pick kind of goes against my logic of picking the revenge angle as we’ve seen in other games. But Virginia won this matchup as a five-point road underdog in November and the ACC needs to mitigate the risk of not having a team in the CFP. You can bet that the Cavaliers will get all the calls and more from the officials. Duke’s defense isn’t good – they have surrendered 25 or more points in six straight games, so look for Virginia to exploit them once again. While this won’t be one of my best bets, I believe that the Cavaliers continue their improbable run to the Playoff.
Virginia 31, Duke 24
This is my stone cold lock of the weekend. I think Ohio State soundly beats Indiana on Saturday night in this battle between the top-two ranked teams. The Buckeyes’ defense has been unbelievable, having surrendered 16 or less points in every game this year. I also believe that if they dominate yet again, the Heisman Trophy result will be between Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia (+180) and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (+200). I’m fading Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza at +160, though if his team pulls the upset, he’s a stone cold lock for the award. As I see it though, Sayin throws three touchdown passes, is virtually flawless on Saturday night, leads his team to the Big Ten Championship, and wins the Heisman next weekend.
Ohio State 27, Indiana 14
Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets
(All best bets are one unit unless specified. Lines are from DraftKings)
-James Madison / Troy Over 47.5 (-105)
-North Texas / Tulane Under 67.5 (-112)
-BYU +14.5 vs. Texas Tech (-147), 1.5 units
-Georgia -2.5 vs. Alabama (-115)
-Ohio State -4 vs. Indiana (-110), 2 units
-Miami to make the CFP (+400), 0.5 units
If you missed by NFL Score Predictions from Tuesday, check them out here.
Good luck this weekend and as I always like to say, “Let’s hit it big! Good luck!”
Cohen's Corner 