While watching the Thanksgiving day game between Detroit and Green Bay, I had a friend text a group thread discussing how it’s more than probable that the NFL scripts who wins and loses. He compared it to wrestling. Sure, Green Bay had a few calls go their way that probably shouldn’t have, but I attribute those to bad officiating and nothing more.
We all know that there are many conspiracy theorists on the internet in all walks of life. In this case, while I’m sure the NFL would prefer to see certain results vs. others, I will never believe that the outcomes are scripted. Heck, the week before, you can’t convince me that this Lions field goal / result wasn’t anything but 100% real.
Just wanted to get that off my chest before I get into the Week 14 picks…
Last week: 10-6
2025-26 Regular Season: 131-62-1 (68%)
2024-25 Regular Season: 180-92 (66%)
2024-25 Overall: 190-95 (69%)
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The Lions have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games. Being that they’re at home and a loss would all but realistically eliminate them from the NFC playoff picture, I think they’ll get it done in what should be a fun game on Thursday night. With star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown likely out, look for Jameson Williams to have a field day against the Dallas secondary, while Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery thrive on the ground. Regardless of my pick this week, many props to Dallas for remaining in the mix and keeping their slim playoff hopes alive into Week 14.
Lions 31, Cowboys 26
It’s conceivable that the Seahawks could win their last five games and hold on to the NFC’s #1 seed and a playoff bye. But with three of their last five games on the road and a couple of home games against serious playoff contenders (Colts, Rams), I’m betting that won’t be the case. One thing I will bet, well against, is the Falcons, who are a whole lot worse than I thought they would be this season. I would be borderline shocked if they didn’t have a new coach in 2026.
Seahawks 27, Falcons 16
Impressively, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has never finished with a sub-.500 record in his long coaching career in Pittsburgh. But with the way their offense is playing, I have a hard time finding three more wins on their schedule to keep that streak alive. Lamar Jackson has looked like a shell of himself for the Ravens, but this is a get right spot at home with the AFC North Division lead hanging in the balance. On the other hand, at some point the Steelers may need to think about putting Aaron Rodgers out of his misery and on the bench as the Giants did with Russell Wilson.
Ravens 27, Steelers 17
If not for the flukiest of outcomes in Arizona, Tennessee would still be winless this season. Their entire franchise operation makes Cleveland look successful, which is VERY hard to do. Expect this to be among the ugliest football games on both sides that we’ll witness all season, but the Browns’ defense will dominate the Titans’ pathetic offense.
Browns 19, Titans 9
Huge game with the lead in the AFC South Division on the line. Jacksonville has won 3 of the last 4 meetings, losing in overtime in a meaningless Week 18 game last season. With home games against the pathetic Jets and Titans remaining, a win this week would all but guarantee Jacksonville an 11 win season and a playoff berth. After a 7-1 start, the Colts are going backwards and face a very difficult schedule down the stretch. Betting Indianapolis to miss the playoffs at +240 (on DK) might be a good value, especially if you think they will lose on the road in Week 14 as I do.
Jaguars 24, Colts 22
I’m probably a fool for picking against Washington here, despite the fact that they’re on a seven game losing streak. Minnesota’s offense is downright horrendous thanks to dreadful quarterback play. I’m not sure we’ll see much worse ever than Max Brosmer played in Seattle last Sunday. With J.J. McCarthy expected back, the Vikings will have to rely on defense to secure the minor home upset. Flip a coin as I did, which came up Minnesota…who I predict will win by the smallest of margins.
Vikings 17, Commanders 16
Another coin flip between two teams who are already focused on what their offseason moves will look like. Miami has won 4 of 5 and New York 3 of 5, so I have to give credit to both head coaches for keeping their teams playing hard. With that said, I believe the Dolphins are slightly better and will have the best player on the field in running back De’Von Achane. They win on a late field goal on the road.
Dolphins 20, Jets 17
I know they’ve had loads of injuries to deal with, but the Buccaneers have been a complete disappointment of late. Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 6 games, but despite that, they still have an edge over Carolina to win the NFC South. With a win this week, the Bucs would be a game ahead of the Panthers with two matchups scheduled against them in Weeks 16 and 18. New Orleans is playing somewhat hard for first year coach Kellen Moore, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept this within a touchdown and covered the spread in Week 14.
Buccaneers 26, Saints 19
Despite playing a fantastic game in Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Bills have to be on upset alert against Joe Burrow and the Bengals this week. Burrow is 2-0 in his career against Josh Allen and had a small lead in the other matchup which was cancelled after the Damar Hamlin medical scare. Cincinnati is playing with nothing to lose as evidenced by a superb effort in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night. I will pick the Bills to win but love the Bengals plus the points. I wouldn’t mind parlaying a trio of Ohio teams with the spreads this weekend: Browns -4, Bengals +5.5, Ohio State -4.5 / 5 / 5.5.
Bills 30, Bengals 27
I was so wrong about the Raiders this year. I thought they would be halfway decent with the Pete Carroll / Chip Kelly combination as coach and OC. Instead, this looks like a dreadful pick on my part. Geno Smith is literally falling down when rushers come close…he’s playing scared. Carroll should bench Smith, then resign and enjoy retirement. Time for Vegas to start over in the offseason. And Denver…well, they just keep finding a way. They’ll be a fade for me in the postseason though as the luck is due to run out.
Broncos 28, Raiders 13
The biggest game of the weekend in the NFC not only for significance but as far as rivalries go. The Bears have been excellent this season and deserve to be in the playoffs. But this Green Bay trend is worth playing until proven otherwise: they’re now 8-0-1 when scoring 20+ points. Chicago has surrendered 20 or more in 8 of 12 games. These teams meet again in two weeks but I’ll go with the home team to pull out the victory here. I love the Bears with the points though, especially if you can buy the line up to 7.5.
Packers 23, Bears 20
If I was Arizona, just relieve Jonathan Gannon of his job now. What’s the point in watching him coach five more games with an inept team? We all know he’s not going to be back next year. Los Angeles had a brutal loss in Carolina last week which might have cost Matthew Stafford a true MVP bid. Look for him to bounce back with three touchdown passes in a big Rams win.
Rams 34, Cardinals 20
Both of these teams are currently on the outside looking in, which is borderline shocking. I believe Kansas City will win out and get to 11 wins, while Houston has a solid chance at 10 wins even with a loss this week. It’s hard to explain how and why the Chiefs have struggled this season. Patrick Mahomes is playing at a high level but their defense has been underwhelming. Houston, on the other hand, has the opposite problem. A great defense with an inconsistent offense. Look for a low-scoring game on Sunday night that will be decided by one possession either way.
Chiefs 23, Texans 17
And finally, the Super Bowl hangover has finally caught up to Philadelphia. It can be argued that they’ve played poorly in 7 of their last 8 games. They have also only scored 25+ points in two of those eight games so this pick might be even more wishful thinking. I’m just waiting for the light to turn on again for Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. Either way, with Justin Herbert’s broken hand making his status murky, I’m riding with the Eagles’ defense once again.
Eagles 25, Chargers 18
Back later this week with score predictions for every college football conference championship game!
Cohen's Corner 