Thanksgiving weekend is an NFL fan’s dream – games on four different days including three on Turkey Day. With NFL playoff races heating up and fantasy football regular seasons nearing their end, there’s a ton of intrigue for Week 13. Which teams are on upset alert this weekend?
I’m 23-6 in straight up picks over the last two weeks – let’s see if we can keep the train rolling this week!
Last week: 11-3
2025-26 Regular Season: 121-56-1 (68%)
2024-25 Regular Season: 180-92 (66%)
2024-25 Overall: 190-95 (69%)
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Green Bay is 7-0-1 when scoring 20+ points this season and 0-3 when they don’t. Considering that Detroit has allowed 20 or more points in 8 of 11 games this season, it seems more likely than not that the Packers will get there, even with Matt LaFleur’s continued conservative gameplans. Either way, I expect this game to be close, but I trust the Green Bay defense to get a crucial stop late and to put Detroit’s playoff aspirations into panic mode.
Packers 24, Lions 23
This game feels like an eruption spot for the Kansas City offense. I still don’t think much of the Dallas defense, despite an impressive second half against Philadelphia on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes and his stable of receivers should torch the beatable Cowboys secondary and make it another miserable Thanksgiving viewing experience for Dallas fans.
Chiefs 34, Cowboys 24
How good will Joe Burrow be in his first game back for Cincinnati? If you look at his history, Week 1 performances (off a long layoff) haven’t been too successful. Baltimore has won five straight since Lamar Jackson returned from injury and they’re now tied for first place in the AFC North at 6-5 with Pittsburgh, who they face next week. I would be surprised if the Ravens had a ton of trouble against the injury-plagued Bengals.
Ravens 28, Bengals 20
This has to be a get right spot for the Eagles after the meltdown in Arlington on Sunday. Chicago’s defense isn’t great and I believe Philadelphia’s defense makes life difficult for Caleb Williams. I’ll be laying the seven points as the Bears are due for a rough week. It would be nice to see Jalen Hurts play like his old self though – he clearly hasn’t been all that sharp this season.
Eagles 27, Bears 16
The Rams are the best team in the NFC. Matthew Stafford is the clear favorite to win League MVP. Carolina is extremely bi-polar and they’re playing on a short week. I’m not finding much reason that this game should be close.
Rams 30, Panthers 15
Myles Garrett is on the heater of all heaters as defensive players go. He’s recorded 13 sacks combined in the last four games, and is only five sacks away from the single-season NFL record. Expect him to get at least two on Brock Purdy on Sunday. But on the other side, I don’t expect Shedeur Sanders to do much even against the banged up 49ers defense. I’m playing the under here but yet again, the 49ers find a way to win another strange game.
49ers 21, Browns 13
The Texans defense might actually be the most talented unit on that side of the ball in the league. But Indianapolis’ offense is a well-powered machine led by Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner Jonathan Taylor. Look for Indianapolis’ running back to top 100 yards on the ground and lead his team to another close win, which inches them closer to the AFC South division title.
Colts 24, Texans 20
I have to give Mike McDaniel credit – I thought he was a dead coach walking for the first half of the season, but Miami has played hard recently. I tried to pick the Saints last week and it didn’t go well, so I won’t be pressing my luck this week.
Dolphins 26, Saints 17
I really don’t know what to tell you about this game. The Falcons are incredibly hard to predict and the Jets flat out stink. I think Atlanta wins assuming they give their star Bijan Robinson 20+ touches, but I don’t have much good rationale beyond that to add.
Falcons 23, Jets 18
This is the one pick I question just because I’m not sure how effective the Tampa Bay offense will be if Baker Mayfield doesn’t play. I was tempted to pick Arizona outright as the Bucs have cratered lately, but I think they rely on the running game and continue Arizona’s recent misery. I’m not sure how the Cardinals can justify bringing back coach Jonathan Gannon next year.
Buccaneers 24, Cardinals 20
It’s not like Trevor Lawrence is playing all that well for Jacksonville, but he has a ton more to work with on offense than his counterpart Cam Ward in Tennessee. I think the Titans show a little fight this week but it won’t matter as they’re overmatched.
Jaguars 26, Titans 18
I knew the Vikings were headed for a letdown in 2025, but J.J. McCarthy has been far worse than anyone could’ve anticipated. Minnesota has to bring in a veteran backup next season as McCarthy just may not be suited for the NFL. Or maybe he’ll prove us naysayers wrong at some point? Either way, it’s not going to happen this week in Seattle against one of the best defenses in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Max Brosmer start for the Vikings (due to McCarthy’s concussion-related symptoms), and if so, the results likely won’t be much better.
Seahawks 27, Vikings 13
I like Pete Carroll as a head coach. I liked the Raiders hire in the offseason. But it hasn’t worked and likely won’t. Carroll should be a one-and-done as Las Vegas is an embarrassment. Giving up ten sacks to the Browns last week cost Chip Kelly his job as offensive coordinator. I’m not sure Carroll’s tenure is far behind. Off a bye week, the Chargers roll at home.
Chargers 31, Raiders 20
This is a much bigger game for Pittsburgh than Buffalo, as the Bills are pretty much resigned to their fate that the AFC East race is over courtesy of New England. The Steelers’ end of season schedule is brutal with two matchups against the Ravens and a game at Detroit included. Look for a close game throughout, but Josh Allen leads Buffalo on a last second drive with a last-second Matt Prater field goal being the difference.
Bills 26, Steelers 24
Denver continues to find ways to win close games, including most recently against AFC West rival Kansas City in Week 11. If Washington was healthy, I might give them a puncher’s chance this week with both teams coming off a bye week, but that’s not the case. No Jayden Daniels = no chance for Washington to pull the home upset.
Broncos 27, Commanders 19
During their current six game losing streak, New York has lost four of those games by a touchdown or less. So I’ll be taking the points on Monday night in a fun QB battle between young guns Drake Maye and Jaxson Dart. With a ridiculously soft schedule, New England has the inside track to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC and a first round bye. Even so, they are a team I’ll be fading in the Divisional Round almost guaranteed. For now, the Patriots will survive a closer than expected game and move to 11-2.
Patriots 28, Giants 22
If you missed my Week 14 college football picks, find them here.
Hope you and your families have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Cohen's Corner 