Week 13 CFB Musings

I should’ve known better than to go all in on Texas last week. Steve Sarkisian’s record in big games should’ve told me everything I needed to know. But my gut feeling got in the way and it cost me. But the crazy part is, if Texas beats Texas A&M next week, which I likely will predict to happen, they still have a reasonable chance at making the College Football Playoff. Is it fair? No, but then again, the CFP rationale in general is a train wreck and needs to be overhauled. Bring back the BCS…or at least the computer rankings instead of this ridiculous committee.

On to the Week 13 picks…all plays will be one unit on this blog unless specified. All lines from DraftKings. Official plays will be in bold.

Last Week: 3-6 (-3.0)
Overall: 29-36 (-9.77u)

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If the public money wasn’t heavily on the under 54.5 in Ohio State / Rutgers, I would be all in. Instead, this one is just a lean for me. I would be surprised if Ohio State played their top two wide receivers, studs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Look for a gameplan that involves run-run-run and don’t get anyone else hurt before the crucial Michigan game next week. Since OSU likely won’t give this one full effort, I’d lean Rutgers +31.5. My projected score: Ohio State 31, Rutgers 10.

Minnesota is 6-0 at home and 4-0 on the road. Northwestern enters off three straight losses and needs one more win over the next two weeks to secure bowl eligibility. I lean Wildcats at home, but I’m a little hesitant to play the -3.5 points. I could see this as something like 20-17 Northwestern so this one is a pass as an official play for me.

After pulling two stunning road upsets back-to-back, Oklahoma just needs to beat Missouri and LSU to make the CFP. Style points don’t matter with wins against Michigan, Tennessee, and Alabama on their resume. At 7.5, the line looks a bit inflated especially with a low total of 41.5. Give me Oklahoma to win 21-16 but I’m not betting my house on it either.

Call me crazy with this next one but we’re making it an official play. Georgia is 0-13-1 against the spread under Kirby Smart when favored by more than 38.5 points. On Saturday, they’re giving the worst team in the American Conference, Charlotte, 43.5 points. We’ll continue the trend and bet the 49ers here. Georgia 45, Charlotte 7.
Charlotte +43.5 (-108)

Style points matter for James Madison as they host Washington State in arguably the program’s biggest game ever to date. At 9-1 with their only loss to formerly ranked Louisville, the Dukes need to look impressive against this Pac-12 school. While WSU played close games at Ole Miss and Virginia last month, they also lost to a bad Oregon State team on the road three weeks ago. Look for JMU to run it up against a Cougars team, who will be more focused on gaining bowl eligibility in a rematch against OSU next week. James Madison 37, Washington State 17.
James Madison -13.5 (-112)

I’m not betting on my Arizona Wildcats at home against Baylor. I’m shocked and beyond thrilled that my alma mater is 7-3, but a letdown could be in order this week especially with the Territorial Cup in Tempe on deck next week. With rain tentatively in the forecast, the total of 62.5 might be a little high for me. Give me Arizona 34-26 but this one is a no play.

I think Notre Dame might score more than 50 on a bad Syracuse team so the Over 50.5 is the play for me. Notre Dame 51, Syracuse 14.

Jacksonville State has won five straight games, including three on the road, and they’re only giving 1.5 points to FIU. A strong lean there to the road team.

Iowa is -16.5 against a Michigan State team that has essentially given up. The Hawkeyes almost beat Oregon and USC in consecutive weeks. I could see them winning something like 38-10. Another strong lean for me.

USC is traditionally a fade for me on the road under Lincoln Riley. This season, they are 0-4 ATS if you got the Notre Dame line at 9.5 or better (USC lost by 10). I think Oregon scores a couple times late to put the game out of reach. Oregon 34, USC 23. Just a lean for me though…I still can’t forgive the Ducks for losing outright against Indiana when I went big on them earlier this season.

Houston would be in the thick of the Big 12 race if not for an inexplicable 10 point home loss to West Virginia on November 1st. Meanwhile, a once promising TCU season has gone by the wayside with two straight losses to Iowa State and at BYU. I think they bounce back on the road despite the fact that the Cougars are coming off a bye week.

I’m laying the points with Utah against Kansas State despite the line being a ridiculous 17.5. Outside of losing to Texas Tech in Salt Lake City this season, the other Utes’ home games have resulted in wins of 54, 32, 46, and 31 points. After watching them dismantle Baylor by 27 on the road, I think the Utes cover this big line as they need to run it up as much as they can to impress the CFP selection committee. Even still, I’m going to buy the line under 17 just in case. Utah 41, Kansas State 17
Utah -16.5 (-130)

South Carolina, a team that has lost five straight games and blew a 27 point lead at Texas A&M last week, is now favored by 24.5 over Coastal Carolina. No thanks. The Chanticleers have won four of their last five games and now face a team that should be highly unmotivated for this one. South Carolina wins by less than 14 points.
Coastal Carolina +24.5 (-118)

Georgia Tech has too much on line in terms of CFP contention to lose to a Pitt team, who got smoked at home by Notre Dame last week. I’ll be including the Yellow Jackets on the money line in a couple of afternoon parlays. Georgia Tech 34, Pittsburgh 29.

Nebraska is getting too many points on the road at Penn State. I know the Nittany Lions just won last week for the first time since September 13th, but they’re still missing WAY too many players. And maybe the downgrade from Dylan Raiola to true freshman TJ Lateef isn’t as much as we would expect for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska coach Matt Rhule wants to show Penn State who they should hire in a few weeks. This one will be close but I’ll buy a point on this line in my favor. Penn State 21, Nebraska 17
Nebraska +10.5 (-131)

Tennessee hasn’t won in Gainesville since 2003 and Florida is playing with nothing to lose. The Vols are on major upset alert this weekend as only 4-point road favorites.

You know there’s nothing more than old Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema would like to do than crush his former team on the road on Senior Day in Madison. I’m going to buy Illinois down a point though I think they’ll win this game by double-digits. Illinois 24, Wisconsin 10.
Illinois -6.5 (-140)

I have no idea how to predict BYU at Cincinnati, two teams whose games I just can’t pick right. The Cougars are 2.5-point road favorites and are basically in the Big 12 Championship Game if they win this week (UCF isn’t beating them in Provo next week). Cincinnati needs to show up after losing inexplicably to my Wildcats last week. Flip a coin and don’t bet the game.

Finally, let’s talk Washington-UCLA in a Big Ten matchup. How ridiculous is the college sports world that the top west coast teams are no longer in the Pac-10/12. Terrible. It seems to me that (former UofA and now current) Washington coach Jedd Fisch wants the UCLA job badly so it might be in his best interest to impress the Bruins’ decision-makers. But there are injury issues with the team’s top running back Jonah Coleman and top wide receiver Denzel Boston, so I’m staying away from this as an official play. Assuming those two players are good to go, the Huskies romp 38-17.

Official plays for Week 13:
Charlotte +43.5 at Georgia (-108)
James Madison -13.5 vs. Washington State (-112)
Notre Dame / Syracuse Over 50.5 (-115)
Utah -17.5 vs. Kansas State (-130)
Coastal Carolina +24.5 at South Carolina (-118)
Nebraska +10.5 at Penn State (-131)
Illinois -6.5 at Wisconsin (-140)

If you missed by NFL Score Predictions from Tuesday, check them out here.

Good luck this weekend and as I always like to say, “Let’s hit it big! Good luck!”