Last week, I was pretty solid with my SportsLine CFB picks, +3.65 units and a 5-3 record. I put a two unit play on Texas -1.5 and fortunately they didn’t fully collapse at the end vs. Vanderbilt.
For the season, I was 24-26 on SL, -4.4 units. All plays will be one unit on this blog unless specified. All lines from Draft Kings.
Here are some thoughts on this week’s games and with that, official plays will be in bold.
It’s usually a good formula to bet overs in USC home games. Since last season, in ten home games, the average total has been 65 points. This year, USC won 73-13, 59-20, 45-31, and 31-13, though I blame Michigan for keeping that one under 57.5. I would think the Trojans score at least 34 this time and their defense is suspect enough to give up three scores to an improving Northwestern team. USC 37, Northwestern 20.
Northwestern / USC Over 50.5 (-115)
For the other Thursday / Friday night games, I lean South Florida -13.5 (buy the half point if you need to) over UTSA – style points matter for the Bulls, Houston to upset UCF as a minor favorite, and Memphis to hold off Tulane, even with a backup QB. We’ll call those plays parlay material, but none that I’m overly confident in.
Every week I try to fade Indiana and it doesn’t work, so I’ll stay away from -14.5 at Penn State. Who knows if the Nittany Lions team, without their head coach and starting QB, even care anymore after being crushed by Ohio State in the second half last week.
Mississippi State is 7-1-1 against the spread this season and is getting 9.5-points at home against Georgia. My friend Harry Gagnon, of the Against All Odds podcast, likes MSU outright but I’m not willing to go that far. I see it being a Georgia victory but close, let’s say in the neighborhood of 31-24. So I lean MSU plus the points in the matchup of Bulldogs.
I believe that Texas Tech is all that and BYU’s time to get smoked is coming. If the game was in Provo, I might think differently, but Behren Morton is going to carve up the Cougars secondary. I’ll buy a half point on this one just in case, but the Red Raiders are for real and will take it to the Cougars. PS – I still can’t believe my Arizona Wildcats didn’t beat BYU with a ten point lead in the final six minutes. Texas Tech 33, BYU 17.
Texas Tech -9.5 (-126)
Ohio State is the only undefeated team against the spread in the country this season. They might even be better than last year, which I’m not sure was possible. Even with that said, laying 29.5-points on the road is a bit much for me. I’ll pass at Purdue.
I think Missouri, even with a backup QB keeps it within a touchdown against Texas A&M so I lean Tigers there…while I also lean Over 40.5 in Oregon-Iowa despite the bad weather expected. 24-17 would get us there…but I won’t make it an official play either.
Big game for me in Tucson on Saturday. An Arizona team that I didn’t have a ton of expectations for has the chance to make a bowl game with a win over a so-so Kansas team. Noah Fifita is playing at such a high level and a win would put Brent Brennan’s job status as rock solid heading into 2026. Give me Arizona 34-26 with a lean on the -4.5 / -5.5 and the over 56.5.
I don’t know what the heck happened to Iowa State since September but TCU at -258 can be safely included in your parlays. They should cover the 7-point spread as well but just in case…
I’ve seen this line move a bit down this week but doesn’t matter to me. Wisconsin stinks, having lost six straight games with only two touchdowns scored in their last 16 quarters. While I usually like to root against old-UofA coach Jedd Fisch, I think his team rolls and seals whatever doubt is left that Luke Fickell will return as the Badgers coach. Washington 28, Wisconsin 10
Washington -10.5 (-115)
Quite the turnaround of sorts for UNC in recent weeks. They should’ve beaten Cal, should’ve beaten Virginia if not for a gutsy two-point miss in overtime, and crushed Syracuse last week (which I gave out on the ML at plus-money on SportsLine). Now the fighting Belichicks face an awful Stanford team coming across the country. Bill Belichick is 2-1 vs. Frank Reich, though Reich was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles when they beat Belichick’s Patriots in Super Bowl LII. Won’t matter on Saturday…North Carolina rolls. North Carolina 31, Stanford 13.
North Carolina -7.5 (-105)
I picked Clemson as my preseason National Champion. Whoops. I think I had them facing Penn State as well. Double whoops. They are 0-4 straight up at home against Power Four teams in 2025. Florida State overcame a four game losing streak to crush Wake Forest at home last week. I think they add to the Tigers’ misery in Week 11. Florida State 30, Clemson 26.
Florida State ML (-105)
Despite not having Brian Kelly as their head coach any longer, I think LSU keeps it within two scores at Alabama. I don’t love the +10 as an official play but maybe +14.5 or so if you’re buying points and putting in a larger parlay.
Of Louisville’s seven wins this season, only two, Eastern Kentucky and Bowling Green were by more than 19.5 points. I think Cal can keep within three scores though I’ll probably buy it up to 21.5 just in case.
Without Dylan Raiola for the rest of the season, it would be a minor surprise if Nebraska won more than one more game with at UCLA, at Penn State, and Iowa left on the schedule. I like the Bruins to win their fourth and final game of 2025 at home on Saturday night. Give me UCLA 27, Nebraska 20.
UCLA -1.5 (-112)
Finally, I’m staying away from Navy / Notre Dame – maybe a lean to the over 55.5 since the Fighting Irish should score 40+. And for a late night special, San Diego State -5.5 at Hawaii is a lean but the Warriors have been a pleasant surprise since I saw them get wrecked against my Arizona Wildcats in late-August.
Official plays for Week 11:
Northwestern / USC Over 50.5 (-115)
Texas Tech -9.5 (-126)
Washington -10.5 (-115)
North Carolina -7.5 (-105)
Florida State ML (-105)
UCLA -1.5 (-112)
If you missed by NFL Score Predictions from Tuesday, check them out here.
Good luck this weekend!
Cohen's Corner 